Several conservatives involved in the state argued that Johnson casting himself as foe of Biden and the national Democratic brand could help shore up his intraparty standing. Gas prices have plummeted. Gerald Ford 1974-77. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? In that sense, I think we can be quite confident the decline is real, Franklin said. The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Incumbent Sens. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. Democratic Lt. Gov. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maines light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. Chris Sununus net approval rating is +30, so he is expected to comfortably win reelection. As they have for years, three northeastern, blue-state Republicans lead the way: Govs. Learn more. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. 2022 Senate Elections (51) Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll (The Hill), Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks (NBC News), 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks (CNN). This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Some 95% of Democrats in the poll support Barnes over Johnson, the same as in June, while 92% of Republicans favor Johnson to Barnes, up slightly from 89% two months ago, according to the poll of 811 Wisconsin registered voters conducted between August 10-15. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. Approval rating Approval Disapproval rating Disapproval Net approval. Richard Nixon 1969-74. For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); But Kleefisch did the best of the Republicans in thehead-to-head matchup against Evers, with 43% of the vote versus 47% for Evers. The state is closely divided in its partisan affiliation- 29% say they're Democrats, 31% say they're Republicans, and 39% say they're [] Mandela Barnes in a swing-state face off that could become one of the most competitive races of the midterms. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. Share: Listen Download. Results from the most recent update. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. By Eli Yokley. These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. Barnes, 35, would become the youngest member of the Senate, as well as Wisconsin's first Black senator, if he wins in November. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. Scribd is the world's largest social reading and publishing site. How Every Senator Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement Senator, polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. However, the latest Maqrutee poll shows Johnson up 1% after a barrage of attacks ads. He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnsons job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. He backed a decision by Oshkosh Defense a large Wisconsin-based manufacturing company and one of his largest campaign funders to locate over 1,000 jobs in Spartanburg, South Carolina, instead of his state. This is up from 80% a year ago, even though 87% of respondents had deployed anti-virus software. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. Based on Morning Consults approval ratings1 for every senator and governor in the country (now updated for the first quarter of 2022), PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a term from baseball, replacement-level) candidate from their party would be. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Today, the Democrat wins, he said. Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. Since 2019, his net favorability rating in the WOW counties has dropped from an average of plus 41 to plus-8 in the last four Marquette polls combined. Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. and Biden approval rating unchanged. Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. . Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs whether to run again, his embrace of Trump's anti-democratic campaign to overturn the election results already has angered some mainstream Republican allies, and is poised As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. Senators, behind Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania (36%) and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (33%), according to an April 2022 report from Morning Consult. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Independent Sens. . Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. Michels has quickly jumped to the lead in the Republican primary, with 27% of the vote versus 26% for Kleefisch, 10% for former Marine Kevin Nicholson, and 3% for Rep. Timothy Ramthun. Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. ", "It's not like we don't have enough jobs here in Wisconsin," he told reporters in February. The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. He assumed office on January 3, 2011. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. ago. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term. With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (among other news outlets) is reporting that two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has decided to run and will make his formal announcement very soon: Johnson . According to the latest figures, taken from surveys conducted among 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, 36 percent of Badger State voters approved of his job performance, 51 percent disapproved and 13 percent had no opinion. Buy It Now. 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Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. 56% of independent voters in . Comparing Johnsons average net rating in 2019 with his average in the four most recent Marquette polls, Johnson has gone from: That suburban erosion can also be found in the WOW counties, the three suburban counties outside Milwaukee that for decades were a bedrock source of lopsided Republican support: Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. In a June 2022 poll, 37% of voters viewed the senator favorably and 46% viewed . The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, weve created a statistic that Im playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. Wisconsin Democrats are eager to win back the Senate seat, which has been occupied by Republican Sen. Ron Johnson a top conservative foil and ally to former President Donald Trump since he . Can we marry dogs? A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. This story was republished on Jan. 16, 2023, to make it free for all readers. Let's get into the rationale for these changes. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. In the United States, presidential job approval ratings were first conducted by George Gallup (estimated to be 1937) to gauge public support for the president of the United States during their term. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. GOP Love for Johnson Exceeded Only by Democratic Disdain. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. His current term ends on January 3, 2029. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is somewhere in the middle, with a PARG of +6. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. Theres such a striking decline, and its a decline that has been sustained through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022. Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. Sign-in to take full advantage of your membership, including an ad-free website and improved browsing experience. Senator, led by Lt. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Harry S. Truman 1945-53. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. Faircloth's loss came in a year in which the President, Democrat Bill Clinton, had an approval rating in the 60s. If youre running in a purple state and its a Republican year, none of that matters., Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Mandela Barnes in the general election in Wisconsin, NBC News projected. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. 1990 FLEER. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. Have questions? The American Independent is the No. Price: US $0.99. Bush 1989-93. According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. Appointment o Appoint ambassadors, public ministers, federal judges: with advice and consent of the Senate o Appoints about 3,500 people, of which 1,125 require Senate approval o Can remove many of these apps at will o Technically appts military personnel o Selection of the right people: very imp o Cabinet: formal body of presidential . While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Joe Zepecki, a Milwaukee-based Democratic communications strategist, said other issues like Russias aggression in Ukraine, the Supreme Courts handling of Roe v. Wade and the uncertain trajectory of the pandemic could also change the climate come November. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Wikler said every Democratic candidate has a slightly different path to victory and touted Democrats successful efforts to reduce Republican margins in the states deep red areas, swing the suburbs and increase the partys standing in urban communities. Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Bemis, a major plastics manufacturer, had appointed Howard Curler as its CEO in 1978, and during the first several years of PACUR's existence, Bemis was the business' sole client. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. 772 days 4 . Ron Johnson's approval ratings are underwater in a swing state that President Joe Biden won. I'm just trying to convey the truth. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered . Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. The . George H.W. Partisan types. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television . Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The same Marquette poll showed that among likely voters, Johnson is leading his Democratic . He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago.

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